CaliRepublicans Favor Rice and Allen in '08
[David Suetterlein] Hotline is reporting that Luntz, Maslansky Strategic Research has released a poll showing Secretary of State Codi Rice and Senator George Allen to be California's Republican elites' favorites for the Republican nomination in 2008. The survey asked 251 of California's GOP county chairs, major donors and top GOP elected officials that were in attendance at the 2/24-25 state convention to name their favorite potential candidate for 2008.
Rice's tenure as the Provost of Stanford and liberal stances on social issues made her the favorite daughter candidate for many in attendance but the Virginian's success is much more difficult to understand. Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senator John McCain and outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who finished third, fourth, and sixth in the poll all had reason to believe they would do better. All have political philosophies much more in line with Californians and each have made many more trips to California than Sen. Allen.
Although California has not gone Republican in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan's veep was running in the glow of the Reagan Revolution it remains an important pool of campaign cash for Republican candidates to go fishing in. Since Condi has repeatedly said she would not run, one can reasonably expect for the former LA Rams coach's son to cash in big in the "golden state" come 2008.
2/24-25 Poll of California Republican Elites
Condi Rice 29%
George Allen 26
Rudy Giuliani 16
John McCain 8
Newt Gingrich 8
Mitt Romney 7
George Pataki 2
Tom Tancredo 2
Undec/Oth 2
National Journal Releases Conservative Scores
[David Suetterlein] National Journal has released it's 2005 Liberal and Conservative Rankings. Unlike most political scoring systems that are based on the percentage of conservative or liberal votes taken by a legislator, National Journal's system is based on how much more conservative or liberal an individual is compared to all the other members of that body. This system thus makes it impossible for any member to score a perfect "100" or to compare members from different houses.
A quick look at the numbers shows...
2008 GOP Contenders ECON SOC IR COMP
George Allen 80 77 74 85.5
Bill Frist 86 64 74 81.5
John MCain 52 64 54 59.2
PA's US Senators ECON SOC IR COMP
Rick Santorum 65 57 74 70.0
Arlen Specter 48 47 44 46.8
Local US Congressmen ECON SOC IR COMP
Melisa Hart 83 69 89 82.7
Tim Murphy 60 58 77 65.5
Phil English 62 68 61 64.8
McCain Abandoned by Key Former Ally
[David Suetterlein] The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza is reporting that South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford is refusing to line up behind any of the early candidates for the 2008 GOP nomination. In 2000, Sanford was one of Senator John McCain's key organizers in South Carolina's early primary. Although McCain has already lined up the support of Sen. Lindsey Graham (of Gang of 14 fame) many McCain supporters hoped the Governor would also be in their camp for 2008.
While Cillizza advises readers not expect a Sanford endorsement the day after the November election, the Governor will likely have heard lots of positive buzz about one of McCain's Senate colleagues by then.
Allen Wins CPAC Strawpoll
[David Suetterlein] Senator George Allen still has to defeat likely Democrat nominee (and Reagan Administration turncoat) James Webb this November to retain his Senate seat, but this weekend's CPAC presidential strawpoll reveals that he is the leading choice of conservative activists. The good Senator made headlines last year when he was the winner of National Journal's poll of insiders.
Sen. Allen and his Senate colleague John McCain leapfrogged last year's leaders, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, to the top two spots. Allen's 22% level of support was almost four times as much as the Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's. Below are the full results as reported by Human Events Online.
Senator George Allen: 22%
Senator John McCain: 20%
Frmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani: 12%
Secretary Condoleezza Rice: 10%
Maj. Leader Bill Frist: 6%
Congressman Tom Tancredo: 5%
Governor Mitt Romney: 5%
Frm. Speaker Newt Gingrich: 5%
Senator Rick Santorum: 3%
Governor George Pataki: 3%
Undecided: 4%
SwannBlog
[Jared Walczak] Mark Kilmer was kind enough to extend an invitation for me to join SwannBlog, a project of Red State that focuses, appropriately enough, on Lynn Swann. My first contribution, such as it is, can be found here.
Ann Coulter, Redux
[Jared Walczak]
New Policy Committee Chairman
[David Suetterlein] Lost in the midst of the race for House Majority Leader, was the race for Chairman of the Republican Policy Committee. While the chairman of the policy committee largely goes unnoticed by the general public, a quick glance at the list of past policy committee chairman reveals a line-up of Republican heavy-hitters who have used the position to move even higher up the food chain.
Joe Martin (MA), 1949-1959
John Byrnes (WI), 1959-1965
John Rhodes (AZ), 1965-1973
Barber Conable (NY), 1973-1977
Del Clawson (CA), 1977-1979
Bud Shuster (PA), 1979-1981
Dick Cheney (WY), 1981-1987
Jerry Lewis (CA), 1987-1989
Mickey Edwards (OK), 1989-1993
Henry Hyde (IL), 1993-1995
Christopher Cox (CA), 1995-2005
John Shadegg (AZ), 2005-2006
So who is the new RPC Chairman? At only 31 years of age, the boyish looking new Chairman is Rep. Adam Putnam (FL). The third term Congressman was already a member of the powerful Rules and Budget Committees, and this ascension to the House's junior leadership should only increase his influence in the People's House. If Florida does indeed overtake New York as the nation's third most populous, one might be tempted to wonder just how long Mr. Putnam will wait to make another move.
McNulty Confirmation Hearings
[David Suetterlein] Now that Samuel Alito has been confirmed as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court, --pause for shout of celebration-- the Senate Judiciary Committee has begun hearings on the confirmation of Paul McNulty '80 as the Deputy Attorney General. While not getting the same level of coverage as Justice Samuel Alito's hearings, they are very important and the Richmond Times-Dispatch carried a good write-up of yesterday's action.
McCain and Shadegg
[Jared Walczak]
Some "Stunned" By Sheehan Arrest
[Jared Walczak]
Alito Confirmed!
[Jared Walczak]
Leadership Race Enters 4th Quarter
[Jared Walczak] According to The Hotline, Boehner and Shadegg may now have the votes to block Blunt on the first ballot, and each claims commitments from Blunt supporters should a second vote be required. The acting majority leader's best, and perhaps only, chance, is on the first round, where he remains the favorite, but his level of support slips with each passing day, and both the Boehner and Shadegg camps -- especially the latter, as Shadegg was a late entrant -- suggest that their men have the quiet support of several who put their names on Blunt's list of public supporters early, but now have doubts. The vote is conducted by secret ballot. In keeping with the football theme, it appears highly possible that the race could go into overtime. While I would personally prefer Shadegg, I favor Boehner over Blunt; for those of a similar opinion, the steady stream of rumors about Blunt's dwindling support is good news.
"Justice Sunday"
[Jared Walczak] Yesterday marked the third "Justice Sunday," with the central event, as it were, being services at a Philadelphia congregation. Sponsored by the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family Action, the event advertised featured speakers such as James Dobson, Tony Perkins, Jerry Fallwell, Edwin Meese, D. James Kennedy, David Barton and our own Rick Santorum. The premise is, to most conservatives, indisputable: a double standard is applied to the judicial nominees of Republican presidents, and judges differing from liberal orthodoxy are branded "out of the mainstream." (Notable is Alito's "out of the mainstream" ruling in Casey, supported by a seeming mainstream of 2/3rds to 3/4ths of Americans, according to a long string of independent polls.) Rulings by jurists committed to a strict construction of the constitution are attacked as if they are policy, with criticisms revolving around the popularity (or lack thereof) of the judge's decisions, not their legal merit. Sen. Santorum is right in denouncing the judicial philosophy that is "destroying traditional morality, creating a new moral code and prohibiting any dissent." Others speaking on Justice Sunday III, however, are at the precipice of making the same error that their opponents do: discerning the merit of a judge by whether or not his rulings favor their preferred policy. Said a pastor speaking at the event, "Real justice is about diversity"; on the contrary, I submit that real justice is blind, and is concerned only with fairly applying the law. Tony Perkins described Justice Sunday as a response to the ten commandments and pledge cases, among others. "The demand by judges that a Christian check his or her faith at the door before entering the public realm is a tyrannical use of judicial power and it must cease," he said. While I agree that these cases were poorly decided, event speakers focused on outcomes rather than addressing why they thought the cases were wrongly decided. In some ways, this is reflective of audience; a law school professor probably couldn't rally a crowd with an explanation of Justice O'Connor's doctrine. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to frame the debate on Alito -- or any other justice -- on policy grounds. Justice Sunday III has its pros and cons, and I do not denounce it. Conservatives should simply refrain from supporting or opposing judges based on politics rather than philosophy.
More Jockeying from Hotline
[David Suetterlein] Hotline has continued its great coverage and is saying that... - Republican Study Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Pence (IN) will not be a candidate for Majority Leader. - Congressman Jack Kingston (R-GA), a key DeLay ally plans to endorse Rep. Roy Blunt for Majority Leader.
GOP Leadership Jockeying
[David Suetterlein] Jockeying for position in the House Republican conference has been intense since DeLay fired the starter's pistol yesterday by announcing his withdraw from any claims on being Majority Leader. While most major media outlets took Saturday off, Hotline on Call as always has been on top of all the Hill's breaking news. Amongst the highlights... -Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who spoke on campus this semester, has been named as one of the "whips" for Chairman John Boehner's Majority Leader campaign. Hart has also called for a complete "review" of the entire GOP leadership team. The two moves put together look like the Congresswoman may be making a run at one of the lower leadership posts. -Moderate Congressman Mark Kirk (IL) has been mentioned as an advocate of temporary Majority Leader Roy Blunt's attempt to remove the "temporary" from his title. Kirk is co-chair of the Republican Tuesday Group, a collection of 35 GOP moderates, and has been pushing the Conference to use a "suburban strategy" for the 2006 midterms. -Sources close to Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (VA) say the only Jewish House Republican has now nailed down 100 commitments in his race to become Majority Whip. While all of this is very interesting, please also remember our good friend Jared who is likely suffering painful withdrawals tonight as he was in route to his internship with Maryland Senate Republican Whip Andrew Harris and was forced to miss his Steelers 31-17 win.
DeLay Steps Aside
[Jared Walczak] According to reports, Rep. Tom DeLay has decided to permanently step aside, allowing new leadership elections to proceed. Acting Majority Leader Roy Blunt is a likely contender, as is John Boehner. Both Eric Cantor and Mike Pence have also been mentioned in recent days.
Ted Kennedy and Sam Alito
[Jared Walczak] In a guest editorial appearing in today's Washington Post, Senator Edward Kennedy challenged the Supreme Court nominee's honesty and impartiality. Others have addressed many of these points far better than I can (for more information, I direct you to NR's Bench Memos, the Volokh Conspiracy and RedState's Confirm Them); for the purpose of this post, I will address only Sen. Kennedy's fatuous charge that the judge is a hopeless ideologue. Anyone who has been following the process is likely aware of Judge Alito's now famous application, submitted to the Reagan Administration at age 35, when he professed to have conservative politics and indicated opposition what he termed the excesses of the Warren Court. Writes Kennedy: The views expressed there raise serious concerns about his ability to interpret the Constitution with a fair and open mind. When this embarrassing document came to light, he faced a difficult decision on whether to defend his 1985 views or walk away from them. When I and others met him a short time later, he appeared to be renouncing them -- "I was just a 35-year-old seeking a job," he told me. But now he's seeking another, far more important job. Is he saying that he did not really mean what he said then? More below the fold.
My Ideas on Gillespie's Future
[David Suetterlein] In response to my earlier post, Jared asks "will Mr. Gillespie stay on with Sen. Allen if, as widely believed, he puts his hat in the presidential primary ring, or will he heed the call of others in the commonwealth to run for office himself? Especially, perhaps, were Sen. John Warner to retire?" While all I can offer is speculation, below is my response. Chairman Gillespie's addition to the A-Team certainly does give a boost to Sen. Allen's chances of winning the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, but first the Senator must focus on his 2006 re-election bid and get past likely Democrat nominee and lobbyist, Harris Miller. If Sen. Allen does indeed seek the party's nomination in 2008 (for which I believe he is a supremely qualified candidate) I find it hard to believe that Gillespie would take General Lee's approach and pick Commonwealth over nation. If Sen. Allen does win re-election (which I will really go out on the limb and say he will) and then seeks the party's presidential nomination in 2008, Chairman Gillespie would be a major player in that campaign and then be poised for a senior White House position should Allen win or for a special election run at what would be Allen's newly open Senate seat. Chairman Gillespie would likely be a fine candidate to represent Virginia in the United States Senate. Especially considering that he started his political career dialing for dollars at the RNC. However, I don't think he would challenge Senator Warner, and I don't see Warner allowing anything other than the Good Lord's call from preventing him from seeking another term in 2008. A special election run in 2009 after being a major part of a successful presidential campaign seems to be the most likely scenario in which Gillespie would win a Senate seat. Chairman Gillespie's maintaining of his current role as a Republican K-Street advocate is certainly the most financially beneficial for his family and likely the most politically beneficially to the party. He is extremely gifted as a Republican advocate, as recently evidenced by his lobbying for John Robert's confirmation. Additionally the Commonwealth that produced so many great leaders is not in any drought and will easily find a capable Republican candidate.
Ed Gillespie's Future
[Jared Walczak] David, any thoughts on Gillespie's future? His addition to Allen's team, as you note, makes for a formidable campaign apparatus, with the one possible weakness, the lack of a preeminent fundraiser, now certainly not an issue. The question, though, is this, and perhaps you, as a Virginian, can offer some insightful predictions: will Mr. Gillespie stay on with Sen. Allen if, as widely believed, he puts his hat in the presidential primary ring, or will he heed the call of others in the commonwealth to run for office himself? Especially, perhaps, were Sen. John Warner to retire?
Steamrollers are not your friend
[Jared Walczak] So says Peggy Noonan in an excellent piece in the Wall Street Journal. "If the problem with government is that it is run by people and not, as James Madison put it, angels, the problem with big government is that it is run by a lot of people who are not angels," the former Reagan and Bush 41 speechwriter observes. Using the steamroller as a metaphor for big government, she writes: And learning to accept the steamroller, learning to direct the steamroller, learning in fact to love the steamroller, can get you to some bad places. It can get you to Jack Abramoff. To more size, more action, more corruption. To flawed people who are essentially unaccountable and busy winning their own victories for their own cluster. "I got mine. You got yours?" And: "It isn't good to love the steamroller. In the end it can roll right over you, and all you stand for, or stood for." "Is there a way for Republicans to go? Stop trying to fit in. Stop being another atom in the steel. It does no good trying to run a better steamroller. It won't work. Steamrollers are not your friend." The whole piece is worth reading.
DeLay's Support Crumbling
[David Suetterlein] On January fourth the editors of National Review opined that Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) should not attempt to return to House leadership this year and now two days later the Washington Times is reporting several of the former Majority Leader's close allies are thinking similar things. The Times points out that even Paul Weyrich, the chairman of the Free Congress Foundation who gave a moving speech in support of DeLay at last May's tribute dinner now believes that DeLay must step aside. A year after making a similar speech, Women's Rights icon Phyllis Schlafly declined comment implying that she at least no longer publicly supports DeLay returning to the leadership. Although Speaker Dennis Hasert (R-IL) has still taken no action to call elections, these recent move evoke little confidence that DeLay will again be the majority leader anytime soon. At the time of last May's tribute dinner, The Conservative Movement Salutes Rep. Tom DeLay, the Washington Post's Mark Leibovich predicted that the tribute would likely be DeLay's eulogy. Leibovich's article chronicles past political figures who received similar tributes and it is hardly a who's who of Nixonian comebacks. UPDATE: U.S. Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R-PA) apparently shares the sentiments of the reportedly two dozen House Republicans who are circulating a petition calling for special election for Majority Leader but wants to go even further and have the Republican Conference review the entire current leadership team. Yesterday, Rep. Hart released this statement, "I believe there should be a full review of the leadership team. The current letter being circulated by Congressmen Flake and Bass does not go far enough. The Republican Conference is run by a leadership team and when the majority leader position becomes vacant, the Conference needs the ability to reassess the leadership team as a whole." Rep. Hart is frequently mentioned as a rising star in the Conference. Perhaps her call for new elections of all the offices is a signal that she intends to run. Otherwise the move would seem only an effort to alienate the existing leadership.
NEA gives $65M to Leftist Causes
[David Suetterlein] The Wall Street Journal has a great editorial about the disgustingly large sums of members' dues money that the National Education Association gave to liberal groups last year. The nation's largest teachers union was forced to reveal its expenditures because of new federal rules pushed through by Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao. The NEA and other unions staunchly opposed the new rules and the disclosure reports reveal why. Among the organizations that the NEA donated its members' due money to were the Human Rights Campaign which lobbies for "homosexual rights", the Fund to Protect Social Security, and the ultra-liberal and misnamed People for the American Way. The editorial makes great points about why these disclosures are necessary and can be viewed here.